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Research Article Open access CC BY 4.0

Modeling Agricultural Gross Domestic Product of Kenyan Economy Using Time Series

Musyoki M. Ngungu, Ong'ala Jacob, Wawire Noah

Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics · pp. 1–12 · Published 12 Nov 2018

10.9734/ajpas/2018/v2i124563

Abstract

The agriculture sector is the mainstay of the Kenyan economy. Thus, the sector has a significant role and contribution to GDP. In this study, Box-Jenkins seasonal ARIMA time series modeling approach is used to develop a model that best describes the quarterly agricultural gross domestic product of Kenyan economy. Agricultural gross domestic product data collected quarterly from 2000-2014 at constant 2001 prices is used for modeling. From the analysis, SARIMA(1, 0, 0)(1, 1, 0)4 was found to be the best model describing the quarterly agricultural gross domestic product of Kenyan economy.

Agriculture seasonal ARIMA GDP time series

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