Ontological Insecurity and Decision-Making during Black Swan and Dragon King Events, and COVID-19

Abstract

The tremendously disruptive global pandemic of COVID-19 has had a destabilizing effect on individuals and groups as it triggered a profound uncertainty about the ability of nations, organizations, and individuals to survive. Under such conditions, decision-making was affected in a number of ways which has a profound implication for leaders and policymakers. This paper presents new theoretical lenses that incorporate literary and cultural narratives to consider the various potential classifications of COVID-19 as a “Black Swan” or “Dragon King” event, and how the disruption has precipitated psychological distress. Further, the paper discusses the notion that Dragon King extreme events may be precursors to catastrophic transition. In this analysis, we look at concepts such as R. D. Laing’s The Divided Self, and the psychological concept of ontological insecurity.  While the concept is a psychological one, it has been applied to the analysis of literature, with very illuminating results.  Likewise, the concept could be applied to the factors going into thinking about reality, one’s relationships with others, and then, decision-making. When combined with techniques to develop self-awareness, such as the Johari window, even more insight is achievable. The overall purpose of the paper is to analyze the relatively hidden or unacknowledged literary narratives that constitute driving mechanisms in decision-making in psychological and ontologically destabilizing Black Swan and Dragon King events.