Modelling Human Impact on Land Use and Land Cover in the Téné Protected Forest, Center-West Ivory Coast: Past Trends (1986 - 2017) and Future Prediction (2029)

Abstract

Similar to other Ivorian protected forests, the Téné Protected Forest (TPF), located in the Centre-West of Ivory Coast, is experiencing unprecedented anthropogenic pressure, leading to the degradation of its forest cover and changes in land use. This study aims to analyse and predict the spatio-temporal dynamics of land use within the TPF. Land use analysis was conducted using the ENVI 5.1 software over the period 1986–2017, employing Landsat satellite imagery (TM 1986, ETM+ 2000, and OLI 2017). These data were combined with field observations to classify land use in 1986, 2000, and 2017. The classified images were exported to QGIS 2.18, where the MOLUSCE plugin was used to generate a transition matrix. This matrix facilitated modelling via a first-order Markov chain to predict the progression of anthropogenic impacts up to 2029. The results reveal a drastic decline in dense forests, dropping from 20.30% in 1986 to 0% in 2017, replaced by perennial crops, fallow lands, and bare soils. Land use classes exhibited high instability, with an overall stability index below 0.50, indicative of intense anthropogenic pressure. Modelling forecasts a continued decline in the TPF’s forest cover by 2029, with complete disappearance of dense forests and an increase in fallow and bare soils. The findings of this study underscore the urgent need to implement the country’s newly adopted policies for forest preservation, rehabilitation, and expansion in this area, with the aim of safeguarding remaining forest ecosystems and restoring degraded zones.