Modeling Groundwater Behavior in Ferozpur Subcatchment of Jhelum Sub-basin of Kashmir Valley

Abstract

Aims: The study aimed at modeling the groundwater behavior in the Ferozpur subcatchment of Jhelum sub-basin of Kashmir Valley using the GMS (MODFLOW) model. Study Design: The study was carried out in three different simulations for three-time slices viz Baseline (1985-2015), Mid-century (2030-2059) and End-century (2070-2099). Place and Duration of Study: Division of Agricultural Engineering, SKUAST-K, Shalimar between August 2015 and July 2016. Methodology: The Subcatchment was first delineated and then various physiographic maps were prepared in ArcMAP 10.2 using LISS III image of the Kashmir valley. The delineated map was the input to the GMS (MODFLOW) 10.2 for digitizing the area. The various global, optional packages and layer property of the study area were collected as raw data from different Government organizations and some of the packages were computed. Three different simulations were carried out after giving all the inputs as packages to GMS for different time slices keeping all the inputs same except recharge from precipitation. Results: The groundwater behaviour for different time slices was analyzed and flow budget was computed on the basis of precipitation conditions. As a consequence of increased precipitation, average annual groundwater recharge from all sources and sinks would increase by 7712.45 m3/year in Mid-Century (MC) (2030-2059) and 373847.6 m3/year in End-Century (EC) (2070-2099) and the average groundwater levels would rise by 0.9 mbgl (metres below ground level) in MC and 1 mbgl (metres below ground level) in EC, compared to baseline (1985-2015). Conclusion: The groundwater behaviour and prediction for 21st century indicated an increasing trend of average annual groundwater recharge from all sources and sinks. Average groundwater levels would rise in MC and EC when compared with baseline. Water table is rising up due to increase in groundwater recharge both in MC and EC compared to baseline time slice and it would lead to waterlogging problems in future and also there are chances of floods in future.