Marketable Apple Yield Dynamics in Himachal Pradesh: Trends and Strategies

Abstract

This study investigates spatiotemporal trends in marketable apple yield (20-kg boxes per bigha) across 12 districts in Himachal Pradesh, India, from 1990–91 to 2022–23, using data from the Department of Horticulture. Employing statistical methods, compound annual growth rate (CAGR), coefficient of variation (CV), skewness, kurtosis, linear regression slopes, and Pearson correlations, variability, and inter-district relationships. Statewide, yields grew modestly (CAGR: 0.32%) from 17.42 to 18.60 boxes/bigha (mean: 13.66; CV: 40.32%), indicating moderate variability. District-level disparities were sharply clear, Sirmour showed the highest growth (CAGR: 17.92%) but extreme instability (CV: 103.74%), while Shimla, with the highest mean yield (24.92 boxes/bigha), declined (CAGR: -0.84%; CV: 50.16%). Kinnaur exhibited robust, stable growth (CAGR: 6.73%; CV: 29.58%), and Una/Hamirpur recorded negative CAGRs (-6.67%) from negligible bases. Non-normal distributions were evident, with positive skewness (0.60–1.91) and high kurtosis (up to 3.49 in Sirmour), reflecting climatic and management-driven outliers. Linear slopes ranged from 0.17 boxes/bigha/year (Kinnaur) to -0.12 (Shimla), with strong correlations in Shimla (r = 0.94) and Kullu (r = 0.89) underscoring their statewide influence. Visualizations (trend lines, CAGR/CV charts, skewness-kurtosis plots, correlation matrices, yield-share pie charts) elucidate these patterns. The findings advocate improved interventions, improved canopy, pollination, nutrient, and pest management, enhanced irrigation in Mandi/Chamba, and orchard rejuvenation with canopy management and High-Density Plantation in Shimla, to address climate variability and market pressures, supporting >70% of rural livelihoods dependent on apple cultivation.