Mangrove Forests in a Changing World: Distribution, Change, Drivers and Climate Relevance

Abstract

Mangrove forests are critical coastal ecosystems distributed across tropical and subtropical intertidal zones, forming a unique interface between land and sea. Although they occupy a relatively small global area, their ecological, socio-economic, and climatic significance is disproportionately large. This review synthesises current understanding of mangrove distribution, ecological roles, drivers of change and conservation strategies, drawing on recent datasets, case studies, and projections. Mangroves stabilise coastlines, reduce erosion, act as nursery grounds for fish and crustaceans, and support coastal livelihoods through fisheries, timber, and cultural practices. They are also among the most carbon-dense ecosystems, with mean carbon stocks exceeding 1,000 Mg C ha-¹, most of which is stored in soils. Their role in blue carbon sequestration and storage elevates them as a priority in climate mitigation strategies. Yet, over the past century, mangroves have faced extensive degradation, particularly in Asia, driven by aquaculture, agricultural expansion, fuelwood harvesting, and urban encroachment. Between 1996 and 2020, global mangrove cover declined by approximately 3.4 %, with losses concentrated in Southeast Asia. Recent evidence, however, indicates stabilisation and localised recovery, attributed to improved policy frameworks, restoration efforts, and recognition of their ecosystem services. Remote sensing datasets such as the Global Mangrove Watch (GMW v3.0) and the High-resolution Global Mangrove Forest map (HGMF 2020) have provided robust quantification of global and regional mangrove dynamics. These datasets reveal stark regional disparities, with Southeast Asia continuing to experience the highest losses, while South America and Oceania remain comparatively stable. Climate change presents an additional existential threat, with nearly 70% of Indo-Pacific mangroves projected to lack the vertical accretion capacity required to keep pace with sea-level rise. Nonetheless, evidence from successful restoration initiatives highlights the resilience of mangroves when hydrological processes are maintained. It concludes by outlining pathways for future research and management that integrate monitoring technologies, ecological engineering, community co-management, and policy frameworks to secure mangroves’ role in climate adaptation and mitigation.