Long-Term Assessment of Meteorological Drought Pattern and Rainfall Variability in Solapur District, Maharashtra, India

Abstract

This study assesses the intensity, frequency, and temporal variability of rainfall and meteorological droughts in Solapur district, Maharashtra, India, using 75 years (1950-2024) of annual rainfall data. The district lies within a semi-arid climatic zone of the Deccan Plateau, making it highly vulnerable to monsoon fluctuations. Rainfall data were analyzed using statistical and index-based methods, including the Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI), Percent Deviation from Normal (PDN), and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), along with trend detection through the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator. The long-term mean annual rainfall was found to be 568.74 mm, with a high coefficient of variation (31.10%), indicating substantial inter-annual variability. The rainfall trend shows no statistically significant increase or decrease, though a slight positive slope (0.28 mm/year) suggests marginal improvement in recent decades. The drought indices reveal multiple severe and extreme droughts, particularly in 1960, 1968, 1980, 2003, and 2015, interspersed with wetter periods during 1956, 1995, 1998, and 2020. Decadal analysis indicates cyclic rainfall fluctuations, with the 1960s and 2010s being the driest periods, while the early 2020s exhibit partial recovery. Overall, the results demonstrate that Solapur’s drought regime is governed by short-term monsoon variability rather than long-term climatic shifts. The findings emphasize the need for improved water resource management, adaptive cropping systems, and continuous drought monitoring to enhance climate resilience in semi-arid regions of Maharashtra.