Trends and Seasonal Variability of Dust Activity in Iraq (1992–2022)

Abstract

Dust activity constitutes a major environmental stressor in Iraq; however, its long-term assessment is challenged by sparse station coverage, reporting gaps, and strong interannual variability. These limitations introduce potential observational bias, particularly when analyses rely on short records, linear assumptions, or spatial aggregation. This study examines spatiotemporal variability in dust activity across 11 meteorological stations in Iraq using long-term meteorological observations (1992-2022), with a focus on spring–summer conditions when dust occurrence is most frequent. Non-parametric methods (Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator) were used to find trends in the data because they are less sensitive to outliers, non-normal distributions, and data gaps. We used descriptive statistics to describe the mean conditions, variability, and extremes. We also linked station-level results to administrative governorates to look for spatial patterns without forcing artificial spatial smoothing. The analysis shows that there are big differences between regions, with higher dust activity during spring and summer in southern Iraq. Trend results show a mix of trends that are going up, down, and not significant across stations, more than half of the stations exhibited statistically non-significant trends, indicating dominant interannual variability rather than systematic long-term change. This means that the changes we see are mostly due to short-term variability and localized processes, not a clear trend across the whole country. The presence of opposing trends underscores the potential bias in interpretations of dust evolution in data-sparse regions due to aggregation and incomplete records. These results show that to accurately measure dust trends in Iraq; we need methods that take into account observational bias and variability. These findings have implications for regional climate variability assessment and dust management strategies in Iraq. They also give us a statistically consistent starting point for future studies that look at atmospheric circulation and source attribution.