An Application of ARIMAX Model to Examine the Effect of Climatic Factors on the Annual rice Production in Bangladesh

Abstract

Rice is the world’s third main crops and around 160 million of people in Bangladesh  consume it as a staple food. As a climate vulnerable country, the effect of climatic factors on rice production in Bangladesh is noticeable. Therefore, the study aimed to examine  the impact of climatic factors on annual rice production in Bangladesh. We compiled a yearly dataset including rice production, mean temperature (˚C), relative humidity (%) and precipitation (mm/day) from 1981 to 2020. The entire data were analyzed by using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Explanatory Variables (ARIMAX) model. We found that mean temperature had a negative impact on the rice production (β = -13518243, 95% CI: -19868503, -7167982). Relative humidity had both positive impact on the rice production (β = 1824456, 95% CI:  418585, 2230327). Precipitation had both positive and negative impact on the rice production. In conclusion, mean temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation are three factors that may have an influence on the annual rice production in Bangladesh. Since Bangladesh has a hot, humid environment, it is therefore advised that breeders create rice types that use less water and are more effective in high temperatures.