Evaluation of Climate Variability Impacts on the Population of the Oil Palm Leaf Miner in Nigeria

Abstract

This paper evaluates climate change and variability from 1961-2010 and projections up to 2050 and its impacts on the oil palm leaf miner - Coelaenomenodera elaeidis (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae), in the study area. The study involved direct field insect pest surveys and assessments at the Nigerian Institute for Oil Palm Research (NIFOR) main station. A complete randomized design (CRD) was utilized. The leaf miner was sampled during 2009-2010 in oil palm fields and records from previous surveys from 1976-1980 were utilized. Climate variability projections up to 2050 were evaluated and impacts on the leaf miner evaluated. Time series analysis was conducted using Minitab 14.0. Least square method was used to estimate the trend in the series and the trend equations. Computed models for temperature, rainfall and relative humidity were Yt = 30.6174+3.51E -02*t; Yt = 163.829 - 0.112521*t and Yt = 68.8473 – 230E -02*t respectively where t is time. On this basis, a forecast up to 2050 was generated indicating an upward trend in temperature and a downward trend in rainfall and relative humidity. Specific forecast indices for 2050 were: Temperature: 33.8°C; Rainfall: 153.70 mm; and Relative humidity: 66.8%. The study has established an upward increase in temperature, attributed to climate change, with concomitant increase in leaf miner abundance between 1980 and 2010 The integration of weather forecasting with farmer action has great potential for control of insect pests in oil palm growing areas.