Dynamic Changes in Forest Cover within Notified Forest Areas of Goalpara Sadar Range, Assam (1993–2023) with a 2033 Projection

Abstract

The assessment of changes in forest cover is critical to the sustainable management of forest resources, particularly in notified forest areas (NFAs). These habitats areas provide vital habitat for several terrestrial creatures, including the huge Asian elephant that lives in the study area. In recent decades, several forest-related issues have arisen in the Goalpara, including encroachment, agricultural land expansion, and confrontations between humans and elephants. To better understand the dynamics of forest cover alterations and their underlying causes, land use and land cover (LULC) pattern analysis has been carried out using Landsat imagery. Furthermore, GIS software has been used to analyze spatio-temporal changes in forest cover over a 30-year period, specifically the years 1993, 2003, 2013, and 2023. Additionally, future forest cover mappings (2033) are generated using the QGIS Molusce Plugin. The key findings of this study indicate that the total forest cover area of the range has been determined as 6663.74 ha (66.52%) in 1993, 6991.09 ha (69.79%) in 2003, 6308.69 ha (62.98%) in 2013, 5955.96 ha (59.45%) in 2023, and is projected to reach 4662.41 ha (53.55%) in 2033. The significant alterations in land use and land cover (LULC) classes include a decrease in Dense Forest (DF) by 1176.9 ha (-11.7%), an overall decrease in Open Forest (OF) by 497.2 ha (-5%), together with an increase in built-up area (BU) by 1977.7 ha (19.7%) and Agricultural Plantation (AP) by 458.1 ha (4.6%), but Moderate Forest (MF) increase of 238.9 ha (2.4%). The average accuracy of the whole classified result found as overall accuracy~89.75, Kappa statistics~0.84. The decline in DF and OF can usually be attributed to changes in the area, particularly the increase in non-forest regions. These areas, typically located near forest edges, are rapidly diminishing due to the encroachment by Built-up area and to minimizing its effect, it  require strictly protected boundary demarcation.