Investigating the Impact of Climate Change Impacts on Direct-seeded Rice Production in Middle Gujarat Using the InfoCrop-rice Model

Abstract

Rice (Oryza sativa L.) is a global food staple, essential for human nutrition and calorie intake, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. This study assesses the impact of climate change on direct-seeded rice (DSR) production in Middle Gujarat (India) using the InfoCrop-Rice model. The study evaluates potential climate scenarios under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5, focusing on projected changes in temperature, rainfall, and sunshine hours, and their effects on rice yield and phenology. Field data from Kharif 2023 were used to calibrate the model, which projected significant increases in maximum and minimum temperatures, variable changes in rainfall, and consistent reductions in sunshine hours. By 2100, maximum temperatures are expected to rise by up to 6°C under RCP 8.5, and minimum temperatures could increase by as much as 7.5°C. Rainfall projections show high variability, with potential reductions and increases depending on the scenario and time period. Sunshine hours are projected to decline by approximately 6.6% under both RCP scenarios. The model simulations indicate a notable decline in rice yields, with reductions ranging from 18% to 36% by 2100. These results underscore the severe impact of climate change on DSR productivity. The study highlights the need for adaptive strategies, including improved water management, resilient crop varieties, and sustainable agricultural practices, to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change and ensure the sustainability of direct seeded rice production in Middle Gujarat.