India’s Wool Sector in Transition: Analysing Production Decline and Trade Shifts (2002–2023)

Abstract

India’s wool sector, though modest in scale within the broader livestock economy, remains vital for rural livelihoods and the textile industry. This study uniquely integrates long-term production trends with detailed Harmonized System (HS) code trade analysis from 2002 to 2023—a period that captures both structural transitions and pandemic-related disruptions. Despite a projected increase in sheep population from 61.5 million in 2003 to 88.1 million by 2031, national wool production declined sharply from 51.1 million kg in 2002–03 to 34.1 million kg in 2021–22. This paradox highlights deep-rooted inefficiencies including low-yielding breeds, shrinking grazing lands, and inadequate veterinary support. State-wise trends show Rajasthan sustaining output, while Madhya Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, and Karnataka experienced notable post-COVID declines. Trade data highlights a shift toward value-added imports and stronger export performance. While total wool imports showed marginal growth (0.08% in quantity; 0.84% in value), the composition changed significantly—raw wool imports (HS F1009) declined, while imports of high-value woven fabrics (HS F0994) rose sharply, reflecting increased demand for finished materials. On the export side, India’s wool sector demonstrated resilience and competitiveness, with wool exports growing at a CAGR of 5.62% (quantity) and 7.54% (value). Raw wool and high-quality fabrics were the top-performing segments, while degreased wool and wool waste exports declined, suggesting weakening global demand or reduced domestic supply. These findings call for targeted policy interventions to enhance wool quality, modernize processing infrastructure, and align production with global market needs to reposition India as a competitive player in the international wool value chain.