Impact of Climate Change on Yield of Major Cereals in India and Nepal: A Micro Regional Analysis

Abstract

Rupandehi and Varanasi districts are located in the tropical region of Nepal and India. As a result, both districts experience warm temperature typical of this climate. The aim of the research is to study the effect of different climatic variables on selected cereals. The study examines the trend of three main climatic variable (e.g. maximum temperature, minimum temperature and rainfall) for the two districts of two different country India and Nepal, by using the time series data for the period 1980-2016 A.D and accesses the relationship between the variables and the yield of two major cereals rice and wheat crops. Multiple linear regression analysis model used in this study. The result from the finding reveals that impact of climatic variables on yield of rice and wheat is more in Rupandehi district 48% in rice and 16% in wheat. Where as in Varanasi district decrease in rice yield by 6.5% and wheat by 21%. For this result adverse effect of maximum temperature and rainfall are responsible in kharif season. The study also evaluates the local knowledge and resource-based adaptation techniques followed by the farmers against climate change.