Identification of Mutation Point and Trend in Export of Indian Groundnut

Abstract

The study aimed to identify structural mutation points and analyze long-term trends in India’s groundnut exports from 2005 to 2024 using time series data on export quantity and value sourced from Trade Map. Pettitt’s test, Buishand’s range test, and the Standard Normal Homogeneity (SNH) test, were applied to detect mutation points, while trend significance and magnitude were assessed using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator. All three tests consistently identified 2010 as a major mutation year for both export quantity and value. Sen’s slope analysis indicated the highest growth during the full study period, with export quantity increasing by 23.84 thousand tonnes/year and value by 35.24 million USD/year. Trend models revealed that the quadratic model best explained the variation in exports. The findings highlight a structural shift post 2010 and emphasize the importance of strengthening trade strategies and infrastructure to sustain and enhance India’s groundnut export performance in the global market.