Towards Earthquake Predictability: A Seismo-Ionospheric Approach Using TEC Anomalies and ARIMA Forecasting

Abstract

Earthquakes have always been a permanent threat to humanity. Monitoring the earthquake precursors using space-based methods can be a new introduction to earthquake studies. The promising analysis of the earthquake precursors such as Ionospheric Perturbations is based on the detection of Ionospheric electron content. Within approximately 3 weeks before an event, negative TEC anomalies have been witnessed. A careful examination of solar and geomagnetic perturbations has been done to ensure that TEC fluctuation in the ionosphere over the investigated time period can be attributed solely to the seismic activity within the earth. Major tectonic plate boundaries, 2-D maps of global ionospheric anomalies, and Earthquake Preparation Zone have all been considered in order to evaluate the TEC fluctuations in the spatial domain during the time leading up to the earthquake. Statistical ARIMA model is used in order to give the backup for the data availability which matches with the data derived from the IGS. 2-D zone-time series LLT maps show how anomaly is spreading in the nearest fault position and EPZ.