How Integrated are India’s Coarse Cereal Markets? Evidence from Jowar Price Linkages

Abstract

In this paper, spatial price linkages and market integration were studied for jowar markets in India.  Monthly wholesale price and arrival data for five major markets i.e. Kekri, Burhanpur, Barshi, Sindhanur and Visnagar over 2009–2010 to 2023–2024 were used. Unit-root testing (ADF), Bai–Perron structural-break detection, Johansen co-integration, Granger causality, Vector Error Correction Models (VECM) and Impulse Response Functions (IRF) were used. It was observed that all price series are stationary at first difference and the five markets are co-integrated, indicating a stable long-run relationship despite short-run frictions. Kekri Granger-causes Sindhanur and Visnagar and Barshi Granger-causes Sindhanur. VECM estimates reveal heterogeneous error-correction speeds — Kekri adjusted at speed of 134.1 per cent, followed by Barshi (57.87 per cent) indicating an uneven responsiveness across regions. IRF analysis confirms asymmetric shock transmission: Kekri and Visnagar act as important transmitters while Burhanpur behaves more self-contained. Price growth is generally positive across markets, but arrivals are highly variable with significant seasonality and occasional structural breaks linked to climatic events. The need for strengthening north–south and west–south regional grain flows via cluster-based aggregation points, inter-state trader passes, and time-bound transport arrangements to reduce marketing frictions and targeted investments in temporary covered storage, moisture testing, and real-time mandi reporting platforms in price-following markets were emphasized.