A Study on Trends and Variability in Monthly Temperatures in Antalya Province between the Years 1960 and 2015

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to measure statistically the change in the monthly mean temperatures within the boundaries of Antalya province between the years 1960 and 2015. For this purpose, temperature observation values, obtained from 12 meteorological stations within the boundaries of Antalya province, were analysed using the Mann-Kendall Test and Sen’s Slope Estimator. In addition to the values from stations, the mean monthly time series data, generated for all of the boundaries of Antalya province by the Thiessen Polygons method, was also analysed by the methods in question. Antalya province was seen to reflect the typical features of the Mediterranean climate when monthly and seasonal mean temperatures were analysed. The highest temperatures measured in Antalya were 12.5 °C (Kas station) in January and 28.5 °C (Kale) in July. The lowest temperatures were 2.3 °C (Elmali station) in January and 23.8 °C (Korkuteli station) in July. The stations, which best represent Antalya province, were Manavgat and Kemer stations in winter and Kale station in summer, according to correlation and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) test results. Seasonal trend analysis results showed an increase in 10 out of 12 stations in the summer. Furthermore 7 of 12 stations showed increasing trends in annual mean temperatures. Negative trends were identified in the Kumluca and Kas stations. There were trends of increase throughout Antalya province only in the months of summer, and no trends in other months, according to the trend test applied to the mean values obtained by the Thiessen method.