Growth Models for Covid-19 Death Figures of Turkey

Abstract

This paper presents modeling of the COVID-19 pandemic deaths to understand behavior of it, predict the peak point of the deaths and cases and produces a short-term forecast using the growth models for the reported data of Turkey. The data which is used in this study are gathered of daily announced by Minister of Health. Von Bertalanffy model has outperformed to the other models considered in this study. However, exponential model has predicted the total deaths and total cases better than the others. And, exponential model has given the best prediction errors among them regarding to the death and positive case figures for last months. Observed data have tended to increase since the last days of August. This could mean that the COVİD-19 threat has reached to a critical stage to crack down on prevention of pandemics spread. Or it could sign the beginning of a second wave of epidemics. More studies must be realized to learn more about the pandemic when the new data are available.