Growth, Instability and Decomposition Analysis of Apple Production in India

Abstract

Apple cultivation in India is concentrated mainly in Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Arunachal Pradesh. This study assessed growth, instability and changes in the components of apple production in India and these major producing states during 2009-10 to 2023-24. Secondary time-series data were analysed using the compound annual growth rate, coefficient of variation, Cuddy-Della Valle Instability Index and decomposition analysis. At the national level, the area, production and productivity of apples recorded compound annual growth rates of 0.19%, 1.67% and 1.46%, respectively. Jammu & Kashmir remained the principal producing state and showed positive growth with comparatively stable area, production and productivity. Himachal Pradesh recorded growth in area and production, but productivity was highly unstable. Uttarakhand and Arunachal Pradesh experienced substantial contractions in area and production, although productivity improved intermittently. Decomposition analysis indicated that the area effect accounted for 77.67% of national production growth, whereas the yield and interaction effects contributed 15.76% and 5.83%, respectively. Jammu & Kashmir displayed a relatively balanced contribution from area and yield, while Himachal Pradesh depended predominantly on area expansion. In Uttarakhand and Arunachal Pradesh, positive yield effects were insufficient to offset the adverse effects of declining area. The findings indicate that strengthening productivity and reducing instability are important for sustaining apple production under region-specific conditions.