Identification of Mutation Point and Trend Analysis of Area, Production and Yield of Wheat Crop in Gujarat, India

Abstract

The study aimed to identify mutation points and analyze trends in wheat cultivation in Gujarat from 1973-74 to 2022-23 using time series data on wheat area, production, and yield obtained from the CMIE. Non-parametric methods, including Pettitt’s test, the Standard Normal Homogeneity (SNH) test, and Buishand’s range test, were employed to identify mutation points. Sen's slope estimator measured trend magnitude, while the Mann-Kendall test assessed statistical significance. Results revealed 2004 as a key mutation point for wheat area, according to the Buishand range and SNH tests. The year 2002 was identified as a significant mutation point for wheat production by both the Pettitt's and Buishand range tests, and for yield by all three tests. Sen’s slope analysis showed the highest growth in production (61.33 thousand tonnes/year, 2002-2023) and a lowest growth in the area (-3.52 thousand ha/year, 1973-2003). The analysis highlights the need to enhance agricultural practices and resource management to address the declining wheat cultivation area while capitalizing on the growth in production and yield for sustainable agricultural development in Gujarat.