Forecasting of Gram Production in Bundelkhand Region: A Time Series Analysis Using ARIMA Model

Abstract

Gram, also known as Chickpea, is an important pulse crop in India, with a long history of cultivation dating back to ancient times. It is a rich source of protein, fiber, nutrients and plays a crucial role in providing food security also income for farmers. This study will help to farmers and the policymakers in developing strategies to improve the livelihoods of farmers, ensure food security and to decide the MSP of gram also help to the farmers to receive good prices for their commodities in the agricultural markets. For forecasting, specifically, the ARIMA time series model was utilized. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) made forecasting of gram production in Bundelkhand region by using 21 yearly observations. The model ARIMA (1, 0, 0) had the lowest normalized value, so this model was chosen. A 10 year ahead production of gram has been predicted. The forecasted value of production will be ranged from 0.06310282 to 0.05428918 MT and the lower and upper confidence interval at 95 percent will be in between 0.01050582 to 0.10055329 MT, respectively from 2022 to 2031. The result showed that the negative growth in production of gram in the Bundelkhand region because of shift in area from this crop to other competitive crops. Thus, there is a need to give more emphasis on concerted research efforts, technological aspects as well as policy aspects (extension services and more remunerative prices) and also suggest appropriate remedial measures for correcting this undesired trend so that increase in area, production, and productivity of gram.