Food-Climate Nexus in Qush Tepa National Irrigation Canal

Abstract

The idea and planning for executing one of Daud Khan’s seven-year initiatives, the Qush Tepa canal, started in the waning years of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan. Following the Taliban’s takeover in August 2021 and the subsequent ramp-up of the canal’s construction, these plans raised concerns among stakeholders of the Amu Darya. This sparked an urgent need to assess the canal’s potential benefits alongside its challenges. Employing a mixed-method research approach, the study explored the canal’s effects on local livelihoods and agricultural output amid a shifting climate. Results suggest the canal is crucial for Afghanistan, especially for ensuring food security for a population expected to hit 100 million by century’s end, while adding roughly 400 million USD yearly to the nation’s GDP. If managed well, the canal could unlock substantial opportunities, boosting food security and availability for both Afghanistan and the wider region. Since 2001, climate change has shrunk arable land due to lower water flow, heightened water demand, and declining rainfall. The study wraps up by noting the canal’s downside—an annual drop of about 6.5 billion m³ of water to downstream nations—while emphasizing the considerable potential for shared economic gains across Afghanistan and Central Asian neighbors thanks to the canal’s development.