Factors Influencing Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Emission: An Econometric Analysis

Abstract

Agriculture significantly contributes to global greenhouse gas emissions, mainly from livestock and crop production, and is projected to rise by 2050 due to intensified practices. Complex biological, technical, and economic factors influence these emissions, highlighting the need for climate-smart policies and sustainable agricultural strategies. This study examines the key factors influencing greenhouse gas emissions from the agricultural sector in India using an econometric framework. Time series data for the period 1990-2021 were collected from the secondary sources, namely World Development Indicators and national databases. The variables considered include livestock production index, crop production index, fertiliser consumption, forest area, agricultural land area, electricity consumption and total fisheries production. To ensure robustness, unit root tests were conducted, confirming that all variables are integrated of order one. The Johansen Cointegration test revealed the presence of a long-run equilibrium relation among the variables. The Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares model was employed to estimate long-run elasticities. The results indicate that crop production, livestock production index, fertiliser consumption and total fisheries production significantly increase greenhouse gas emission. In contrast, forest area and agricultural land area exhibit a significant negative impact, highlighting their mitigating role. Electricity consumption was found to be statistically insignificant. Diagnostic tests confirms the absence of multicollinearity, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation, validating the model’s reliability. The findings suggest that agricultural intensification significantly contributes to emissions, while land-use management and forest conservation play a crucial role in mitigation. The study provides important policy insights for promoting climate-smart and sustainable agricultural practices.