Spatial Analysis of the Spread of Peacock Eye Disease in the Syrian Governorates of Lattakia and Idlib and its Relation to Relative Humidity

Abstract

Climate change is considered to be one of the most important environmental challenges, which has direct and indirect effects on ecosystems, agriculture, and health systems worldwide. Among the noticeable consequences of these climate changes is the increased spread of plant diseases, which are highly linked to current climatic conditions. One of these diseases is peacock eye spot, that affects olive trees, impacting their productivity and health. This research aims to study the relationship between changes in relative humidity and the spread of peacock eye spot disease from 2009 to 2012 in the Syrian governorates of Latakia and Idlib. To achieve this, time series analysis of average relative humidity for the period 1980–2012 was used to determine the prevailing climate change patterns during this period and to ascertain whether there was a significant increase in humidity levels that could be linked to the increased spread of the disease. ArcGIS 10.2.2 was used to process the spatial data and produce illustrative maps revealing the spatial distribution of the disease and showing variations in its severity across the studied areas. The study results showed a clear positive correlation between high relative humidity and increased severity of peacock eye spot disease. Areas with higher humidity recorded higher infection rates compared to areas with lower humidity.