Export Direction of Major Cereals in India

Abstract

Indian economy is dependent on agriculture. Agriculture serves as a significant income generator for the society, providing numerous employment opportunities for both educated and uneducated individuals. India’s capacity to meet domestic cereal demand while engaging in international trade highlights the importance of identifying stable and strategic export markets. In terms of value the trade of cereals was accounted to Rs. 744.91 billion during the year 2020-21, which increased to Rs. 1110.62 billion during year 2022-23. The present study aimed to examine the competitiveness of major cereals viz. basmati rice, non-basmati rice, wheat, maize and other cereals. export from India. For the study secondary data for last twenty years (2002-2022) obtained from official sources, including the Agricultural Processed Product Export Development Authority (APEDA), the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), the Agricultural Marketing Information Network (AGMARKNET) and India stat. Markov Chain analysis is used to identify the direction of exports. The results of Markov Chain analysis showed that UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq for basmati rice; South Africa, Nepal, UAE and Senegal for non-basmati rice; Nepal, Bangladesh, UAE and Sri Lanka for wheat and Nepal, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Vietnam and Malaysia for maize were the most stable market for these commodities. These findings are crucial for shaping targeted export strategies, optimizing resource allocation, and strengthening India's trade relationships.