Exploring the Effects of Human Development Index on Agricultural Output in Nigeria (1999 – 2022)

Abstract

This study empirically analysed the impact of Human Development Index (HDI) on agricultural output in Nigeria from 1999 to 2022. The research utilised annual secondary data obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin and the Index Mundi Database. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag Error Correction Model was used to ascertain both short and long run effects of HDI indicators on agricultural output. The findings indicated that, in the long run, the birth rate had a positive and significant effect on agricultural output (PV < 0.05), while government expenditure on education had a negative and significant impact (PV > 0.05). In the short run, the birth rate remained positive and significant at the 5% level, whereas both the death rate and life expectancy showed negative and significant effects. The study recommended that the government should leverage on the population growth resulting from an increased birth rate to increase agricultural participation and consequently enhance productivity.