Effects of Climate Change on Agroclimatic Suitability of Areas for Selected Cereal Crops Production over Gamo Gofa Zone, Ethiopia

Abstract

This study assessed effects of climate change on agroclimatic suitability of areas for Maize, Wheat and Barley production in Gamo Gofa zone, Southern Ethiopia between September 2014 and February 2015. Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to analyze the changes in suitability of areas for cereal production due to climate change. The analysis was conducted using data collected from different sources. Climate change scenarios of average monthly rainfall and temperature for the period 2050s (average of 2040-2069) and 2080s (average of 2070-2099) were downloaded for 16 General Circulation Models (GCMs) in climate wizard tools. Ensemble mean of B1 and A2 scenarios were calculated using their values of the 16 GCMs. The mean changes of rainfall and temperature were added to the baseline datasets of the period 1961-1990 to produce the future climates. Agroclimatic suitability of areas for major selected cereal crops (Maize, Wheat and Barley) were analyzed using the climate requirements of the crops based on four parameters namely average annual rainfall, mean temperature, altitude and slope both for the baseline and future scenarios. For 2050s and 2080s B1 and A2 emission scenarios, the rainfall and temperature of the zone would increase beyond the thresholds of crops climatic requirements with A2 to be worst scenario. Due to climate change, a maximum of 11%, 25% and 7% reduction of suitable area are expected by 2050s for Maize, Wheat and Barley respectively; by 2080s the reduction would be respectively 23%, 34% and 8.35%, all for A2 emission scenario. Future climates would have significant negative influence on the suitability of areas for cereals production and food security particularly for the study area and generally for Ethiopia that suggests adaptation measures need to be implemented.