Evaluation of Rainfall Variability and Meteorological Drought in Bundelkhand Region, India

Abstract

Rainfall variability significantly impacts the hydrological and agricultural systems of Bundelkhand, a region frequently experiencing drought and water scarcity. This study analyzes rainfall trends, homogeneity, randomness, and autocorrelation across 14 districts of Bundelkhand from 1984 to 2023. Pettitt’s test confirmed homogeneity in most districts except Mahoba, which exhibited a significant shift in rainfall patterns. The Durbin-Watson test indicated negative autocorrelation in most districts, with Chitrakoot as the only exception showing positive autocorrelation. Spatial and temporal analyses revealed considerable variation in annual and monsoon rainfall, with southern districts (Sagar, Tikamgarh, and Panna) receiving higher rainfall than northern districts (Jalaun, Hamirpur, and Banda). The coefficient of variation showed that Jalaun had the highest rainfall variability, whereas Chhatarpur exhibited more stability. Drought assessment using rainfall departure methods highlighted that northern Bundelkhand, particularly Hamirpur and Jalaun, faces frequent droughts every 4–5 years. The results provide crucial insights that can assist policymakers in formulating effective drought mitigation measures and improving water security in Bundelkhand.