Evaluation of Long-Term Trends in Climatic Variables and Correlation Analysis for Major Crops in Prayagraj

Abstract

This study investigates long-term climatic trends and their influence on crop yields in the Prayagraj region of Uttar Pradesh, aiming to enhance understanding of weather–agriculture interactions for sustainable farming. Utilizing meteorological and crop yield data from 1997 to 2022, two complementary statistical approaches were employed. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall (MK) test was applied to detect significant trends in key weather variables—temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity. Trends were evaluated at 1%, 5%, and 10% significance levels. Concurrently, correlation analysis was conducted to examine the relationship between weekly weather parameters and the yields of five major crops: Maize, Wheat, Rice, Mustard & Rapeseed, and Potato. This analysis was aligned with crop-specific Standard Meteorological Weeks (SMWs) covering critical growth stages, and conducted at a 5% significance level to identify key climatic drivers of yield variability. The results highlight distinct seasonal trends and significant weather–yield relationships, offering vital insights for improving yield forecasting models, enhancing climate resilience, and supporting data-driven agricultural planning and risk management in the region.