Evaluation of Historic Trends for Monthly, Seasonal, and Annual Rainfall Series of Tenkasi, Tamil Nadu, India

Abstract

Analyzing the variability and trends of rainfall plays a major role in water resource planning and management. Changes in rainfall patterns significantly influence the water availability in the irrigation structures and agronomical practices of crops.  This study aimed to investigate the trends and estimate the magnitudes of monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall series in Tenkasi, Tamil Nadu, India, using 49 years of rainfall data from 1971 to 2019. Sen’s Innovative trend analysis (ITA) method, Mann-Kendall (MK), and Simple Linear Regression (SLR) test were applied to assess the trends at 5 and 10 % significance levels. Trend magnitudes were estimated by Sen’s slope estimator (SSE) and SLR method. Changes in rainfall magnitude with mean values in percentage were estimated for all three slope estimation methods. The results revealed that the ITA method detected more significant trends of rainfall series over other methods. Significant downward trends were exhibited by October and north east monsoon (NEM) rainfall series had a trend magnitude of -0.43 mm/year and -0.04 mm/year. The percentage change in magnitude of the trend from mean values for October and the NEM series was -11.5% and -0.39%. Sub-trends within the October and NEM rainfall series showed that the low rainfall sub-series exhibited no trend, medium and high rainfall sub-series showed a downward trend. This study concluded that, in comparison to traditional trend analysis methods, the ITA method demonstrated a more rigorous investigation of trends. The significant decrease in rainfall during the NEM necessitates greater attention to water resources planning and management, serving as valuable scientific information for both crop planning and water resource management.