Evaluating the Impact of ICDP on India’s Coffee Production, Yield, and Exports

Abstract

The coffee industry plays a pivotal role in India's agricultural sector, contributing significantly to the country's economy and livelihoods. However, the sector has faced challenges such as fluctuating yields, inconsistent production, and varying export quantities, largely due to biotic and abiotic stress factors. In response, the Ministry of Commerce and Industry launched the Integrated Coffee Development Project (ICDP) in 2014, aiming to enhance coffee production, productivity, and quality across both traditional and non-traditional growing regions in India. This research paper evaluates the impact of ICDP on coffee production, yield, and exports in India by analysing data from 2008 to 2022. The study adopts an interrupted time series analysis methodology to assess trends in the area under cultivation, production, yield, and export quantities before and after the ICDP intervention. The study period is divided into pre- and post-intervention phases to quantify the effects of the scheme. The results indicate a mixed impact of the ICDP. Traditional coffee-growing areas showed initial increases in production and yield, followed by declines, while non-traditional areas exhibited smaller but more consistent growth. Exports also experienced a temporary decline post-intervention but later rebounded, though at a slower growth rate. The analysis underscores the complexity of agricultural interventions, suggesting that while the ICDP had positive impacts in certain areas, challenges such as climate variability and pest infestations continue to affect the sector's overall growth. In conclusion, the ICDP has contributed to stabilizing and developing India’s coffee sector, but ongoing efforts are needed to address the underlying challenges hindering sustained progress.