Evaluating Temporal Price Behaviour of Rice in Bangladesh

Abstract

Aims: The agriculture sector in Bangladesh is predominantly centered on rice production and it is the staple food. High prices of rice can affect the consumers adversely. This study aimed to analyze the annual price dynamics of rice in Bangladesh. Study Design: The study was based on secondary time series data of prices of different category of rice at wholesale and retail level. Both nominal and deflated prices were sued to analyze for achieving the objectives of the study. Place and Duration of Study: Secondary time series data of price for different category of rice from country as a whole from 1991 to 2021 were used to assess its annual price behavior. Methodology: Descriptive statistics were employed to assess the annual price fluctuations, while linear regression analysis was used to evaluate the annual price trends. Results: The analysis revealed significant variations in the annual wholesale and retail prices of rice (both fine and coarse). Notably, coarse rice exhibited greater price fluctuations compared to fine rice in both wholesale and retail markets. Price fluctuation at retail level for fine rice is greater than the wholesale level but in case of coarse rice, price fluctuation at retail level is lower than wholesale level. The study further found that the wholesale price trend for fine rice increased more sharply than that of coarse rice, a pattern that was also reflected in retail prices. Conclusion: The study indicates that over the study period, the price of fine rice experienced a more pronounced fluctuate and increase compared to coarse rice.