Environmental Sustainability and Ecological Resilience: An Analysis of Climate Change, Biodiversity Loss and Conservation Strategies

Abstract

Climate change and biodiversity loss are two major threats that influence each other. However, national evaluations of environmental performance often separate the two. this study conducted a quantitative analysis of the association between the resilience of bioclimatic ecosystems and climate policy performance, species extinction risk, protected-area representativeness, and forest condition. Country-specific data were collected from the 2024 Environmental Performance Index (EPI). The index provides a standardised quantitative scoring system for environmental indicators on a scale from 0 to 100. For 121 countries, complete data were available for the Bioclimatic Ecosystem Resilience Index, climate performance, Red List Index, the Protected Areas Representativeness Index, and the forests issue category score. The following analyses were performed: descriptive statistics, Pearson correlations, a Kruskal–Wallis regional comparison, and heteroscedasticity-robust multiple linear regression. The mean value of the Bioclimatic Ecosystem Resilience Index (BERI) was 37.56 (SD 25.45). BERI was positively associated with forest performance (r = 0.221, p = 0.015). BERI was not positively associated with climate performance (r = -0.058, p = 0.526), RLI (r = -0.151, p = 0.098), or PAR (r = 0.005, p = 0.958). The overall multivariable linear regression model explained a significant proportion of the variance in BERI (R² = 0.071; adjusted R² = 0.038; robust F = 2.829, p = 0.0278). Forest performance was the only independent significant predictor in the multivariable model (standardised B = 0.219, 95% CI 0.056-0.383, p = 0.0086). BERI values differed significantly across regions (Kruskal–Wallis H = 20.36, p = 0.0024). The results indicate that the condition and integrity of forests offer meaningful indicators for resilience. On the other hand, nominal representations of climate mitigation and conservation do not offer meaningful indicators of resilience. Therefore, integrated policies do offer meaningful resilience if they provide for the conservation of intact forests and complement climate mitigation.