Emission Intensity and Drivers of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Buffalo Meat Production: An LMDI Decomposition Analysis of Major Buffalo-producing Countries

Abstract

Buffalo meat production contributes to food supply and agricultural economies in major producing countries, but its expansion is also associated with greenhouse gas emissions. Understanding changes in emission intensity and the factors driving emissions is important for evaluating the environmental performance of buffalo meat production. The present study examined trends in emission intensity, growth performance, and variability in greenhouse gas emissions associated with buffalo meat production at the global level and in the major producing countries of India, Pakistan, and China over the period 2000 to 2022. Analytical tools, such as the compound annual growth rate (CAGR), instability index, and Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition technique, were employed to assess growth patterns and disaggregate total emissions into production, emission intensity, and distribution components. The results indicated that India emerged as the largest contributor to global buffalo meat output, recording the highest production growth rate of 4.92 per cent, accompanied by a substantial reduction in emission intensity (−4.72 per cent). In contrast, China experienced an increase in overall emissions alongside limited improvements in emission efficiency. Pakistan registered a modest rise in production (1.25 per cent), but this was coupled with comparatively higher growth in emissions (3.13 per cent). Findings from the LMDI decomposition analysis revealed that the production effect was the primary driver of growth in CO₂-equivalent emissions from buffalo meat, accounting for an average contribution of 54.83 per cent. However, improvements in emission intensity significantly counterbalanced this increase, with an average mitigating effect of −42.64 per cent, reflecting enhanced efficiency over time. The distribution effect played a relatively marginal and inconsistent role, with an average contribution of −1.37 per cent, indicating its limited influence on total emission changes relative to production expansion and efficiency gains. The findings underscore the need for the adoption of climate-smart livestock strategies. Policy interventions should focus on strengthening emission efficiency through improved feeding regimes, effective manure management, and the deployment of low-emission technologies to support environmentally sustainable buffalo meat production in major producing countries.