Effect of Weather Variables on the Temporal Dynamics of Fall Armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda) in Maize in the Kymore Plateau in Central India

Abstract

The fall armyworm (FAW), Spodoptera frugiperda J.E. Smith (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), is an invasive pest causing substantial yield losses in maize. Its widespread abundance has adversely impacted maize production in India, affecting agro-industries and contributing to major economic losses. This study examined FAW population dynamics and their association with weather variables during the kharif and rabi seasons. Monitoring was carried out from the first appearance of the pest until harvest. Larval populations were higher in kharif (2.35 larvae/plant) than in rabi (1.40 larvae/plant), with the early vegetative stage being the most vulnerable. Correlation analysis indicated that maximum and minimum temperatures and wind speed strongly influenced population dynamics during kharif, while morning and evening relative humidity were key drivers during rabi. These results provide valuable insights for developing season- and weather-based management strategies to mitigate FAW impact on maize. Weather factors played a significant role in shaping FAW dynamics: temperature and wind speed were the key determinants during kharif, while relative humidity had a predominant influence in rabi. These findings provide valuable insights for developing season-specific integrated pest management (IPM) strategies and forecasting models to minimize crop losses and promote sustainable maize cultivation.  These findings will help in developing predictive models and season-specific pest management strategies.