Seasonal Wind Energy Forecasting for Sustainable Electricity Generation in Northern Nigeria

Abstract

The study evaluates the seasonal wind energy resources for sustainable electricity generation across some selected states in Northern Nigeria, motivated by the country’s persistent electricity shortages despite abundant renewable resources, highlighting the need for diversification into renewable energy. This study presents one of the first state-level, field-based wind energy assessments across Kaduna, Katsina, Kano, Bauchi, Yobe, Kogi, and Abuja. Wind speed data was obtained by in-situ measurement approach. The wind speed data (2024-2025) were collected seasonally from Wet to Dry seasons. The wind speed data was measured at a 10m height for an interval of 30mints from 6:00am to 7:00pm for selected months and analyzed on daily, seasonal, and annual timescales. The energy output was estimated using the wind power equation and power density analysis. A 16.21% loss adjustment accounted for turbine downtime, wake effects, and transmission inefficiencies, while results were scaled to 1% of state land mass to assess deployment feasibility. Results show strong seasonal variability, with dry-season peaks (e.g., Katsina, 178.09 kWh in February; Yobe, 147.43 kWh in January; Kano, 141.38 kWh in December) and wet-season lows (e.g., Kaduna, 47.40 kWh in June; Kogi, 35.14 kWh in July). Annual net energy output ranged from 37,597.52 kWh in Katsina to 15,143.86 kWh in Kogi. Scaled land-mass analysis identified Yobe (178 GWh/year), Bauchi (152 GWh/year), and Kaduna (143 GWh/year) as level 1 states for utility-scale wind farms, while Kogi and Abuja were classified as level 3, suitable for hybrid mini-grids. The study concludes that wind resources in Northern Nigeria are substantial but unevenly distributed. It provides empirical, loss-adjusted, and land-scaled estimates that can guide renewable energy planning, hybridization with solar photovoltaic, and infrastructure expansion in line with Nigeria’s sustainable energy goals.