Dynamics of Maize Production in Madhya Pradesh, India: A Trend and Variability Analysis (2001–2021)

Abstract

Maize (Zea mays L.) is a major cereal crop in India, playing a crucial role in food security, industrial raw material supply, and farmers livelihoods. Madhya Pradesh is one of the leading maize-producing states however, productivity levels remain relatively low and production is subject to considerable variability. The present study examines the trends, growth, and variability in area, production, and productivity of maize in Madhya Pradesh over a period of 20 years from 2001–02 to 2020–21. The study is based on time-series secondary data collected from the Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Government of India. Analytical tools such as absolute and relative change, linear trend analysis, linear growth rate, and coefficient of variation were employed. The results revealed a substantial increase in maize area, production, and productivity during the study period. Maize production recorded the highest relative growth (159.33%), followed by area (64.06%) and productivity (58.97%). Trend analysis showed positive and highly significant growth rates for area (3.26%), production (8.31%), and productivity (2.87%), indicating consistent expansion of maize cultivation in the state. However, higher variability was observed in production and productivity, reflecting the influence of climatic fluctuations and dependence on rainfed agriculture. The study concludes that while expansion in cultivated area has been the major driver of maize production growth in Madhya Pradesh, future gains must increasingly rely on productivity enhancement through technological interventions, climate-resilient varieties, improved irrigation, and effective policy support to ensure sustainable growth and income stability for maize farmers.