Dynamics of India’s Fresh Mango Exports: A Study of Two Decades of Growth Patterns and Market Direction

Abstract

Mango (Mangifera indica L.), popularly known as the “King of Fruits,” is one of the most important tropical fruits cultivated worldwide. India is the largest producer of mangoes, accounting for nearly 40 per cent of global production. Despite this strong production base, India’s share in the global mango trade remains relatively modest due to factors such as perishability, logistics constraints and strict phyto-sanitary regulations in international markets. The present study examines the growth, instability and direction of India’s fresh mango and mango pulp exports over a period of twenty years (2004–05 to 2023–24). The study is based on secondary data collected from reliable sources such as the Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA) and the National Mango Database. Analytical tools including Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), Cuddy–Della Valle Instability Index (CDVI) and Markov chain analysis were employed to assess export growth, variability, and trade direction. The results reveal that export quantities of fresh mangoes and mango pulp have shown declining trends, with CAGRs of –5.12 per cent and –2.93 per cent, respectively. However, export values have increased, indicating a shift towards a value-driven export model supported by higher international prices and improved product quality. The Markov chain analysis identified the USA, Oman, and the UAE as relatively stable markets for Indian mango exports. Strengthening supply chains, maintaining quality standards, and expanding export destinations are essential for enhancing India’s competitiveness in the global mango market.