Direction of Trade and Destination Patterns of Indian Soybean Exports: An Analysis

Abstract

This study examined the direction of trade and changing patterns of Indian soybean exports over a 15-year period, from 2008 to 2022. Markov chain analysis and percentage analysis were employed to analyze the export trends. During this period, India's soybean exports underwent significant growth, with the United States and Canada emerging as major importers. The Markov chain analysis revealed that the United States retained 88.27 per cent of its export share, while Canada retained 71.39 per cent. In contrast, the UAE showed zero per cent retention, indicating an unstable market, and re-exported 100 per cent of its imports from India to Canada. The study also identified France, Sri Lanka, and the United Kingdom as potential markets for Indian soybean exports. Notably, India's soybean exports peaked at 292,491 metric tonnes in 2017, valued at 166,258.07 thousand USD. The findings suggested that India should have focused on strengthening trade relationships with stable markets while exploring ways to stabilize exports to volatile markets like the UAE to reduce dependency on volatile destinations.