Direction of Trade and Changing Export Pattern of Soymeal from India

Abstract

Soymeal is an important protein-rich by-product of soybean processing and a significant component of India’s agricultural exports. This study analysed the direction of trade and changing export pattern of Indian soymeal from 2014–15 to 2023–24. Secondary export data were obtained from the Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics (DGCI&S), Kolkata, for soymeal under HS Code 23040030. A first-order Markov chain approach, with transition probabilities estimated using the Minimum Absolute Deviations method, was applied to assess the stability and redistribution of export shares among major importing markets. The analysis covered Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Vietnam and Bangladesh, with all remaining destinations grouped as Other Countries. The results showed substantial instability across the traditional markets. Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam and Bangladesh recorded zero retention of their previous export shares, while Myanmar and Sri Lanka retained 5.3 per cent and 25.5 per cent, respectively. In contrast, Other Countries showed the highest market retention probability at 81.5 per cent and absorbed sizeable shares lost by several traditional destinations. Overall, the findings indicate a shift in India’s soymeal exports from individual traditional markets towards a more diversified group of destinations. Strengthening competitiveness in established markets while sustaining access to emerging destinations may support greater stability in India’s soymeal export trade.