Decoupling Methane Emissions from Economic Growth in Burkina Faso: Evidence from Tapio Elasticity, Log-Mean Divisia Index Decomposition, and Environmental Kuznets Curve Analysis (1980–2018)

Abstract

This study assessed whether methane emissions decoupled from economic growth in Burkina Faso between 1980 and 2018 and identified the main drivers of the observed trend. A quantitative national time-series design was used, combining Tapio decoupling elasticity, additive Log-Mean Divisia Index decomposition, sectoral source analysis, and an exploratory Environmental Kuznets Curve assessment. Methane emissions data were obtained from FAOSTAT, gross domestic product data from the World Bank, and population data from the United Nations Population Division. The results show that methane emissions increased from 5.005 MtCO₂e in 1980 to 20.373 MtCO₂e in 2018, while real gross domestic product increased from USD 2.15 billion to USD 14.19 billion. Methane intensity rose during the 1980s and then declined, with a net fall of 38% over the full period, from 2325 to 1435 t CO₂e per million USD of gross domestic product, and a further fall of 57% from its 1990 peak. Tapio elasticity declined from 2.44 in the 1980s, an expansive negative decoupling state in Tapio's typology, to 0.26 in the 2010s, indicating weak decoupling. The Log-Mean Divisia Index decomposition showed that population growth and rising income per capita increased methane emissions, while declining methane intensity partly offset these upward pressures. Enteric fermentation remained the dominant methane source, accounting for 55% of total methane emissions in 2018, followed by manure management and rice cultivation with biomass burning. The full annual Environmental Kuznets Curve specification suggested an inverted-U pattern, but the estimated turning point coincides with a discontinuity in the FAOSTAT series around 1990 and is therefore treated as indicative rather than definitive. The findings indicate that Burkina Faso has achieved weak decoupling, that is, relative but not absolute decoupling of methane emissions from economic growth. Achieving absolute decoupling will require targeted methane mitigation in livestock, manure management, and biomass-burning practices.