Analysis of the Effects of Climate Change on Maize Production in Mali

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to analyze the effects of climate change on maize production in Mali during the period 1990-2020. The unit root test (augmented Dickey-Fuller) was used to check the order of integration between the variables in the study. The ARDL (autoregressive distributed lag) approach to cointegration limits is applied to assess the association between the study variables with evidence of a long-term relationship. The unit root test estimates confirm that all variables are stationary at the combination of I(0) and I(1). The results show that precipitation and temperature in June and July have a negative and highly significant effect on maize production in both the short and long term analyses. Among other determinants, the area of land devoted to maize crops and GDP per capita have a positive effect on production. The estimated coefficient on the error correction term is also highly also highly significant As Mali's population grows, in the coming decades the country will face food security challenges. Possible initiatives are needed to configure the Malian government to address the negative effects of climate change on agriculture and ensure adequate food for the growing population.