Geo-Chemical Techniques for Earthquake Forecasting in Nigeria

Abstract

Regardless of the doubt caused by some rounds on the impossibility of earthquake forecast, more and more countries, even at the highest governmental levels, realize that doing nothing is the ostrich position of dread before the real difficulties associated with the creation of a real forecasting system. Nigeria in times past was believed to be aseismic. However, the seismic record of Nigeria from 1933-2021 have demonstrated in contrast to the idea, numerous quakes have been recorded in Nigeria throughout the years. With the development of observation techniques and theoretical knowledge of geochemistry, geochemical observation of faults gas has become a hotspot once more in recent years. Rn, Hg, H2, etc., are used for geochemical observations. 222Rn has a half-life of 3.825 days, a magnitude 5.0 earthquake will be detected through precursory phenomena at a distance not greater than 142 km. Mercury and other elements are used as important detectors for earthquake prediction and they play an important role in revealing the relationship between fluid in the fault zone and the occurrence of earthquakes, the range for a magnitude 5.0 earthquake is limited to 200 km. Hydrogen concentrations have been monitored for precursory variations in many fault systems, using either discrete sampling and laboratory analysis or continuous monitoring of ground gas, using hydrogen-sensitive fuel cells. Precursory changes in groundwater chemistry are often attributed to the mixing of fluids from two or more chemically distinct aquifers, the physical mechanism responsible for the mixing of fluids is, however, not well established.