Community Responses to Climatic Trends and Disasters in Western Kenya

Abstract

This study examined community responses to climatic trends and climate-related disasters in Bungoma County, western Kenya. It combined 778 household surveys, nine in-depth interviews, a participatory inquiry workshop and climate datasets for 1990-2020 to assess rainfall and temperature trends, community perceptions and household response strategies. Rainfall analysis using CHIRPS data showed an overall upward trend, with annual rainfall increasing by about 15.20 mm per year and the short rains recording the largest seasonal increase at 8.45 mm per year. ERA5 temperature data indicated warming of approximately 0.7-0.8 degrees Celsius over three decades, with warming observed across all climatological seasons. Community perceptions broadly reflected these climatic patterns, although respondents reported increasing uncertainty in predicting seasonal changes, particularly temperature patterns. Delayed rainfall was the most commonly experienced direct climate-related disaster in the preceding 10 years, reported by 78.1% of respondents, followed by floods (35.2%) and landslides (20.1%). It was also identified as the most impactful disaster on livelihoods by 70% of respondents, although floods were perceived as more significant in Kopsiro. Households used several response strategies, including early land preparation, early-maturing or drought-resistant crops, irrigation, rainwater harvesting, digging wells, drainage trenches, tree planting, table banking and livelihood diversification. However, the perceived effectiveness of these strategies varied by hazard, sub-county, education level and household circumstances. Responses to crop losses and water scarcity were generally viewed as more effective than responses to financial losses, fodder shortages, floods and landslides. The findings indicate that local adaptation practices provide immediate support but remain constrained by limited resources, infrastructure gaps and uneven access to usable climate information.