Analysis of Selected Climate Variables Affecting Cocoa Output in Cross River State, Nigeria (1993-2023)

Abstract

This study investigated the impact of selected climate variables on cocoa output in Cross River State, Nigeria, from 1993 to 2023 using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The data for this study were sourced secondarily, covering temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, sunshine hours, evaporation, wind, and cocoa output. The findings revealed that 83.4% of the variation in cocoa output was explained by climatic factors. In the long run, maximum temperature and rainfall had a positive and significant effect on cocoa yields, increasing output by 58.665% and 3.147%, respectively, while relative humidity negatively impacted yields by -2.460%. Other variables, such as minimum temperature, sunshine hours, evaporation, and wind speed, had insignificant long-term effects. In the short run, maximum temperature significantly reduced cocoa output by -19.256%, whereas relative humidity, sunshine hours, and evaporation contributed positively to cocoa production. The study also found an error correction term of -0.512, indicating that 51.2% of the deviations from the long-run equilibrium are corrected annually, suggesting a moderate adjustment speed. These findings highlight the need for policymakers to promote climate-smart agriculture and invest in research, while farmers adopt adaptive practices like pest control and shade management. Stakeholders, including NGOs and the private sector, can support with awareness, innovation, and funding to mitigate climate risks and sustain cocoa production in Cross River State.