Climatic Variability and Its Impact on Rice and Wheat Yield in the North Eastern Plain Zone of Uttar Pradesh, India (1998–2023)

Abstract

Background and Aims: Climate change exerts profound impacts on agriculture, significantly shaping crop yields, livestock well-being, and global food security systems. The study aimed to investigate rainfall variability and seasonal climatic patterns in the North Eastern Plain Zone (NEPZ). It specifically sought to assess the impact of temperature fluctuations and erratic rainfall on the productivity of major cereal crops, namely rice and wheat. Study Design: It utilized historical climatic variables to determine correlations between weather shifts and agricultural output across various districts within the NEPZ. Place and Duration of Study: The investigation focused on the North Eastern Plain Zone of Eastern Uttar Pradesh (EUP), India. The analysis spanned a 26-year period, covering data from 1998 to 2023. Methodology: Seasonal and annual trends for temperature and rainfall were analysed using key statistical tools. These included Standard Deviation and Coefficient of Variation to measure variability, and Linear Regression Analysis to determine the slope of climatic shifts. The relationship between climate variables and crop yields was evaluated using the coefficient of determination (R2) Results: Analysis revealed an increasing trend in maximum temperature (Tmax) of approximately 1.8°C (slope = 0.0086, R2= 0.009). Rainfall exhibited an increasing trend ranging from 600 mm to 2000 mm, showing a moderate correlation (R2 = 0.5561). Conversely, minimum temperature (Tmin) showed a slight decline (slope = -0.0166). While weak correlation Tmax slightly favoured yields, decreasing nighttime temperatures and erratic rainfall negatively impacted crop growth. The findings emphasize the need for adaptive water management and agricultural planning to mitigate climate-induced yield instability. Conclusion: The NEPZ is experiencing distinct climatic shifts characterized by warming days, cooler nights, and volatile precipitation. These fluctuations, particularly over-irrigation coupled with low Tmin, pose risks to rice and wheat productivity. The findings emphasize the urgent need for adaptive agricultural planning and improved water management to sustain food security in Eastern Uttar Pradesh.