Climatic and Fruit Productivity Trends in Solan District, Himachal Pradesh, India

Abstract

The shortened duration of the winter season in the Himalayan region caused by snow melting has a negative impact on fruit crop growth and productivity. The present study focused on examining the impact of climate change on fruit crops in the Solan district of Himachal Pradesh, India, situated in the Himalayan region. The trend analysis of climatic variables (temperature and rainfall) along with the productivity of fruit crops was investigated. The climate data spanning 30 years (1990–2019), including average temperature (maximum, minimum, and diurnal) and annual rainfall used during crop development stages like pre-flowering, flowering, and fruit-setting stages. To evaluate climatic trends, the Standardized Anomaly Index (SAI) and Mann-Kendall Test for quantification were employed. The Multivariate Linear Regression Analysis was performed to establish a correlation between climatic variables and crop productivity. The findings indicated that during the pre-flowering stage, there was a gradual increase in average maximum temperature at a rate of 0.001°C per year, along with a corresponding rise in diurnal temperature at a rate of 0.036°C per year. However, annual rainfall and average minimum temperature exhibited non-significant decreasing trends, with rates of -0.044°C and -0.033 mm, respectively. During the flowering stage, there was a significant increase in minimum temperature at a rate of 0.151°C per year, while diurnal temperature exhibited a significant decrease of -0.158°C per year. Other variables did not exhibit substantial changes during this stage. In the fruit-setting stage, only the minimum temperature demonstrated a significant decrease over the study period. The response to climate change revealed an overall positive trend for all fruit crops, leading to higher productivity. The correlation study indicated that the phenological stages of each crop were more positively influenced by temperature than rainfall, owing to existing climatic variations. The current climatic conditions in the Solan district were found to be favorable and productive for crop development, as all crops showed increased productivity based on the trend analysis. The study highlights climatic trends and their impact on the productivity of fruit crops in the Himalayan region, which is useful for agricultural planning and adaptation strategies in response to changing climatic conditions.