Climate Variability, Cocoa Production Decline and Livelihood Vulnerability among Smallholder Farmers in Mbam and Kim Division, Centre Region, Cameroon

Abstract

Climate variability poses substantial challenges to cocoa-dependent smallholder livelihoods in Mbam and Kim Division, Centre Region of Cameroon. This study examined the effects of climate variability on cocoa production and household livelihoods in Mbam and Kim Division, Centre Region of Cameroon, using data from 1994 to 2024 for the Mbangassina and Yoko Sub-divisions. A mixed-methods design combined a survey of 303 cocoa-farming households, focus group discussions, key informant interviews, field observations, and 31 years of NASA POWER climate data. Over the study period, rainfall declined significantly in both Sub-divisions, while temperature increased by about 1.1 degrees Celsius. These changes disrupted the cocoa production system at every stage: most farmers reported increased black pod disease and mirid attacks, and 82 per cent reported declining cocoa yields, with a typical loss of about half of previous production. The production decline translated directly into household hardship. Most households reported declining cocoa income, most depended on cocoa for more than 60 per cent of their cash income, and more than half experienced food insecurity, while many struggled to meet school costs. All these effects were statistically significant, and none differed meaningfully between the two Sub-divisions, indicating a shared regional climate problem rather than an isolated local occurrence. The findings show that, because these households depend heavily on a single climate-sensitive crop, a shock to cocoa production rapidly affects income, food, schooling, health, and general wellbeing. The study recommends climate-smart cocoa practices, support for genuine income diversification, investment in rural roads, and stronger access to credit and social protection for cocoa-farming households.