Climate-resilient Pest Management: Integration of Pest Management Practices with Pest Range Shifts, Heat Stress Biology and Cropping System Adaptation

Abstract

Climate change is transforming the tempo, geography, and control of agricultural pests. Warming means and more frequent heat extremes shorten development times, extend activity seasons, and relax overwintering barriers, while interacting with simplified landscapes to increase outbreak risk. At the same time, heat alters the balance between pests and their natural enemies, with enemies often possessing narrower thermal safety margins. These biological shifts collide with management realities: temperature can change pesticide efficacy and non-target effects, and warming-enabled residency accelerates resistance evolution. This review synthesises advances at three interfaces—range shifts and surveillance, heat-stress biology across trophic levels, and cropping-system adaptation—and translates them into a climate-ready integrated pest management (IPM) agenda. First, we consolidate evidence that pests are moving poleward and upslope and cycling faster, and we assess forecasting tools that can anticipate establishment and detection. Species distribution models, mechanistic frameworks, and near-term “detectability” forecasts are most effective when combined, independently validated, and linked to early detection and rapid response programs. Second, we examine how heatwaves rewire multitrophic interactions and chemical performance. Stage-specific thermal sensitivity in parasitoids and predators creates windows of control failure precisely when pest growth rates peak. Compound-specific temperature responses, diel timing, and sublethal effects explain why poorly timed sprays during hot periods can precipitate resurgence and hasten resistance. Third, we evaluate cropping-system redesign as resilience infrastructure. Intercropping, floral resources, and diversified margins stabilise natural enemy services and dampen climate-amplified pest pressure; selective chemistries, applied in cooler windows and embedded in resistance stewardship, complement rather than substitute these ecological buffers. We propose a decision architecture that elevates forecasting from static maps to living services: short-term phenology and detectability models guide within-season actions; suitability and spread models steer surveillance corridors; and all forecasts are scored, updated, and communicated with uncertainty that meaningfully shapes action thresholds. Implementation requires standards for transparent model reporting, climate-informed surveillance as a public good, incentives for diversification, and temporary safeguards that raise the ecological bar for spraying during heat events. Adopting a Resist–Accept–Direct mindset ensures that portfolios remain coherent under non-stationary climates. The destination is a learning-centric IPM: anticipate credibly, design for robustness with diversified systems, intervene selectively and at the right moments, and evaluate transparently so agriculture can convert climate risk into more resilient, lower-input pest management.